نشریه مطالعات مدیریت گردشگری
پیاپی 24 (زمستان 1392)

Tourism, as a clean and high employment generating industry, has been amongst the world’s top income generating industries and received a great deal of attention during the recent decades by development policies and programs.Needless to say, governments and private sectors in at macro and micro levels need to forecast the demand in tourism to survive and develop. Various quantitative and qualitative methods have been suggested in forecasting tourism demand in the literature so far, most of them focusing on quantitative methods, but with the quite recent advent of artificial neural networks and fuzzy neural networks methods, few studies have employed artificial intelligence methods in tourism demand modeling and forecasting.This study intends to forecast Iran’s inbound tourism demand using a suggestive model of fuzzy neural networks and compare its accuracy with ARIMA method. After identification and prioritization of the most significant determinants of Iran’s tourism demand function, and identification of the architecture for the fuzzy neural networks model, the study concludes that thismethod excels over ARIMA in all theperformance forecasting assessment criteria.

This research is focused on the prioritization of the brand equity components from the domestic tourists’ perspectives.The brand equity of tourism destination is defined as total properties (or debts) of the brand in relation with name and symbol of the destination that makes changes in the value of services and experiences acquired there. In the present study, the brand equity of Ramsar Towship destination was evaluated using Konknik and Ruzir model. This research is a questionnaire based survey. Statistical population consists of tourists who were accessible in the tourists’ gathering places, in the 1392 New Year holiday period. Confirmatory factor analysis is employed for analysis of the data. The results demonstrated that in addition to brand image, brand loyalty, perceived quality and brand awareness, directly affect the brand equity in Ramsar. In terms of importance, brand loyalty is considered the most effective factor.

Tourism relies heavily on visitors and tourist spots; hence, it cannot exist out of a community. As a result, tourism and local communities should be attended equally at once, and based upon sustainable tourism principles, considerations should be taken to practice empowerment and distribution of power in related communities. Therefore, current research is about to assess the capacity attributes of the local communities neighboring the Pasargadae Special Tourism Area, and seek out the answer to the following question: How much is the capacity of the aforesaid local communities, for sustainable development of tourism? The statistical population of the current study included all the related official and non-official scholars, authorities and local leaders of Pasargadae district in the second half of 2012. The survey instrument was a questionnaire developed by the researchers. After the reliability and validity of the questions were confirmed, by reckoning the sample size through the Cochran’s formula, a total of 68 questionnaires were distributed in the January of 2012, using stratified random sampling method. In order to answer the research questions, tests such as the Population Mean were performed. According to the resulting outcome, the condition of local communities’ capacity for sustainable tourism development is not approvable and is even lower than the average level.

This paper aims to analyze and explain the knowledge management and its relationship with organizational performance in the hotel industry. Knowledge is the most valuable and most strategic resource for hotels; and organizational performance is the key component to success achievement and superiority; therefore, their relationship is highly important. In this study we have used a general model of knowledge for knowledge management and EFQM model for evaluating the organizational performance. The independent variables for this study include: knowledge management, knowledge creation, knowledge storage, knowledge sharing, and knowledge application; Associated dependent variables are organizational performance, customer results, employee results, society results and key performance results. The Research method is descriptive and analytic survey. The statistical population included 140 directors and senior managers of the various parts of 4 and 5 star hotels out of which 103 people were selected for the sample. The tools applied in this study were two questionnaires based on Lickert spectrum. Data analyses were performed at two levels, descriptive and inferential statistics. For analysis of the relationship between knowledge management and Organizational performance, structural equation modeling and linear regression tests were operated. Research findings confirm the proposed conceptual model of research. The results also revealed that the most correlation lies between Knowledge management and employee results, and also the variable of Knowledge management has direct and significant effect on all organizational performance variables. Altogether, it can be concluded that the data Knowledge management with its effect on hotels, causes the improvement of their organizational performance.

Undoubtedly, any successful marketing strategy has roots in the correct market segmentation, and the tourism industry is not an exception. Although the ecotourism has become one of the major forms of the tourism industry; however, many properties of this important market has remained unknown in Iran. Given the gap between the current ecotourism market and the country’s potential,employment of correct strategies to develop ecotourism highly depends upon more understanding of the market segments. In this study, it was tried to understand the motivations of eco-tourists besides the segments in the issues of ecotourism to be identified. In this regard, adopting a two stage approach, the internal ecotourism market was segmented based on motivation, and the market properties were identified; then applicable proposals in the field of marketing, separated in clusters, were presented. Statistical population of the research comprises the internal eco-tourists visiting theAlamout region. Convenience sampling was used for choosing our respondents and a total of 246 valid questionnaires were analyzed. In the first stage, followed by cluster analysis based on motivation, three clusters were extracted: clusters of real eco-tourists, professionals and vacationers. Next, discriminant analysis was used to examine the inclination of individuals in the clusters towards eco-centric and anthropocentric dimensions. Overall, results of the discriminant analysis, with 95% of confidence, show that the membership of individuals in the cluster neither affects their inclinations towards the eco-centric nor anthropocentric dimensions. All the above statistical analyzes were performed using LISREL 8/72 and SPSS 19.

The main purpose of this study is to identify the motivations and the degree of satisfaction of eco-tourists visiting the Qeshm geo-park. This research is operated using a combination of qualitative and quantitative. In the qualitative part,20 interviews were executed with the eco-tourists visiting the Qeshm area. The qualitative data on motivations and satisfaction of the eco-tourists was analyzed by ethnographic methods. These interviews were used to assess the motivations and the degree of satisfaction of eco-tourists in surveys. In the quantitative section, several theories including Pull and push, Crompton, expectancy-disconfirmation, exchange, Parsons, social Identity and media dependency were drawn upon to study the motivations and satisfaction of the eco-tourists. In the survey section, questionnaires were adopted and 200 numbers of them were completed by eco-tourists. Data were gathered through purposive sampling in both sections of the research. The researcher travelled to Qeshm twice and some additional interviews were also conducted with the district officials. Findings of the research depicted that the most important motivation of ecotourists for visiting Qeshm is its natural beauty. In fact, those who have visited the natural attractions of Qeshm express higher degrees of satisfaction. Results also demonstrated that the motivation for visiting natural beauties, the ecotourism activities, the duration of residence, and the academic qualifications of the individuals are factors that influence the degree of satisfaction experienced by eco-tourists.

This paper is mainly focused on identification of the factors that influence the implementation of the tourism policies, which is inherently a complicated issue. This study is considered a fundamental research and applies survey method. The study proposed a model aimed at explaining the implementation of tourism policies. Consequently, seven major factors were identified as influencing it. These factors consist of: 1- identification of the objectives and policies of tourism 2- institutional and political factors influencing the implementation of the tourism policies 3- behavioral and personality traits of the executors 4- expertise of the executors 5- tourism policies actors 6- official and bureaucratic system influencing the complementation of the tourism policies 7- resources and tools influencing the implementation of the tourism policies. Furthermore, the indicators of the enumerated factors were analyzed and presented in the model. To identify components of the models, four rounds of Delphi method were used. Next, T-test and factor analysis were respectively operated to assess the impact of each variable and to check the validation of the model. All the required statistical analyses in this study were carried out using the Lisrel software. Results confirm that that the seven mentioned factors and their subcategories, positively impact the operation of tourism policies.

One choice for governments in transforming and advancing their service quality, is taking advantage of information and communication technologies and e-government. Currently, the main channel of eservices presentation is the websites of organizations that offer all the services. At this point, measurement of service quality is transported from the physical environment and organizational frame to the virtual world, calling for its own new ways and indices of measurement. In this research, we look for the factors that influence the customers’ satisfaction of the e-services offered by the passenger terminals. Required data were collected from questionnaires devised by the study researchers. Subsequently, factor analysis and structural equation modelling were used for verification of the model and testing the hypotheses. Findings show that functionality, usability, and interaction of the passenger terminals’ e services affect the satisfaction of customers, and this satisfaction finally affects the intention of customers for using these e-services.